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White Hot Post Date: Tue, 19 Aug 2008 05:41:01 -0800

In the American League the Tampa Bay Rays have been the surprise story of the 2008 campaign. The Los Angeles Angels' dominance thus far comes in second, then the Boston Red Sox (if for no other reason than that they are the Red Sox, in all their loony glory), then the disappointing Yankees, etc.

Somewhere down the list you might find the Chicago White Sox, who have the AL Central's best record and MLB's third best run differential. They're a terrific team, and in case you have your doubts, check out some of the forensics. Below are their AL ranks in a number of different categories.

Offense

Runs: 3
OPS: 3
OPS+: 4
AVG: 7
OBP: 7
SLG: 2
HR: 1 (31 more than the second highest total)


Pitching

ERA: 4
ERA+:3
OPS Against: 5
K/9: 3
K/BB: 1
WHIP: 3
FIP: 2
Bullpen ERA: 4

==========

The White Sox do it all pretty well, and there are some excellent macro signs for the club as well. Alexei Ramirez, now the team's full-time second baseman, is slugging .515 and shows no signs of slowing down. With Ian Kinsler out for the remainder of the season, no AL team will trot out a better player at the position. Also coming around is Paul Konerko. He has battled injuries and horrendous BABIP luck all season long but he has reverted to form of late, posting a .293/.446/.561 line thus far in August. Oh and in case you haven't noticed, Carlos Quentin has outperformed Eric Byrnes this season (oops). The offense should continue to pound the ball.

There are those out there who believe that the pitching staff has been getting it done with smoke and mirrors. But they look about right to me. However lucky you think Gavin Floyd has been, and yes he has been lucky, take a look at Javier Vazquez. The man is second in the AL in strikeouts, his K/BB figure is in the top-10 as well and yet he sits with a 4.34 ERA. He has been lights out in August, though, so his higher profile stats should begin to come in line with his peripherals. John Danks continues to dazzle, Mark Buehrle is solid, and the bullpen, led by a resurgent Matt Thornton, is excellent as well.

It won't be easy for the Pale Hose from here on out. During the stretch run they will face the Rays, Angels, Red Sox, and then cap a ten game road trip with a critical three game set against the Twins in Minneapolis the final week of the season. Ten of their final thirteen games are on the road, and they also face their feisty division rivals, the Cleveland Indians, seven times. It won't be easy, but then, it's not easy for any team to get by the White Sox these days.



Autor of the post: Undefined


Waiting is the Hardest Part Post Date: Mon, 18 Aug 2008 07:47:01 -0800

Tom Petty has a song that proclaims “The waiting is the hardest part.” I think it is beyond safe to say the Tampa Bay Rays know the saying and perhaps the song quite well.

The long wait on Major League Baseball to grant the area a team, then the first season, then for the aging slugger obsession to fade out. Then for a rebuilding process that never really happened, and then finally waiting for a change in ownership. The latter happened in November 2005, but, until this year, it was more waiting, although this was different; this was reshuffling assets, this had direction and purpose.

Mainstays like Aubrey Huff, Julio Lugo, Danys Baez and Toby Hall were shipped out within a season without big-named replacements, leaving some fans wondering how much this new regime actually cared about winning. Sure, the days of Brian Meadows closing and Tomas Perez playing shortstop are terrifying in their realness, but all along the prophecy of B.J. Upton and Delmon Young soon taking over helped to soothe our qualms.

They took chances on players who others were tired of waiting on. Greg Norton, Ty Wigginton, Carlos Pena, Hee Seop Choi, Al Reyes, and the list goes on of former top prospects or useful parts that were casted aside from bigger organizations. Not too many players were willing to play in Tampa at any costs, and especially not at the price the Rays offered.

Although winning is finally here, the residuals from the waiting game are stamped all over this team with 18 of the 25 players currently on the active roster (no Carl Crawford or Evan Longoria) being acquired by Andrew Friedman. Many of the success stories from this year arise from foresight and the willingness to withhold temperamental judgments. Despite the public’s rage at not acquiring big names or making “statement moves” Friedman and company decided they wouldn’t back down.

There’s Grant Balfour, the fiery Australian with one pitch that he uses 89% of the time. Acquired in a trade, which is a common theme for this roster, Balfour worked through control issues in triple-A Durham following his designation for assignment in March. Upon his return, he looks less the guy who walked 7.30 per nine last year and more like a 13 strikeout per nine relief monster that has a 3.57 K/BB ratio.

On most nights Balfour is blazing his fastball to Dioner Navarro, the emotionally tested catcher who the Rays chose not to replace this past off-season despite a .641 OPS. Navarro was more than a tad bit unlucky last season with 17% of his batted balls being line drives that resulted in only a .253 BABIP. Navarro was named to the American League all-star team this season, his second full season since Friedman acquired Navarro, Jae Weong Seo, and Justin Ruggiano for Toby Hall and Mark Hendrickson in mid-2006.

Joey Gathright and Fernando Cortez were dealt for J.P. Howell who had such a contrast in AAA and MLB statistics that most were labeling him a quadruple-A player. Thankfully Howell’s absurdly high BABIP regressed while Howell has been getting more grounders and solidifying himself as one of the go-to relievers for Joe Maddon.

Of course Maddon himself is a symbol of the patience exhibited by this franchise. A team looking to make a statement to the fan base that losing isn’t acceptable could’ve easily declined Maddon’s dual options for this season and next. After all Maddon guided teams had finished with the worst record in the league both of the past two seasons, but the Rays persisted that Maddon was indeed the man to lead this team through its transition.

The Rays are now looking at perhaps the most rewarding of waiting projects with Rocco Baldelli. He will probably never reach Josh Hamilton status, but Baldelli was one of the original Rays golden children. As a 21 year old rookie he amazingly broke into a Lou Piniella starting lineup and didn’t perform too bad. Yet as we all know Baldelli’s body has nearly derailed his once great potential down to just shy of 130 games since 2005.

Before this year waiting is all the Rays and their fans ever really had. When Troy Percival signed with the Rays for less money part of his reasoning was feeling as if this team had a legitimate playoff shot; most took this as sugar coating his desire to be a closer. Cliff Floyd would follow not too long after using some of the same key words. Ace Scott Kazmir made the boldest of statements in spring training by stating this team would definitely compete for a playoff position. Most rolled their eyes and said “We’ll see.”

Seeing is believing, patience is a virtue, and the Rays are in first place in late August.

R.J. Anderson is Senior Editor of DRaysBay and Beyond the Boxscore.



Autor of the post: Undefined


Measuring Offense with Batting Runs Post Date: Fri, 15 Aug 2008 08:47:05 -0800

Two weeks ago, we looked at the performance of all major leaguers (well, all but catcher and pitchers). I figured it wouldn’t hurt to take a look at offensive performance here today.

When you talk about offensive metrics, well, you’ve got a lot to talk about. You’ve got linear methods (like Pete Palmer’s Batting Runs), multiplicative methods (like Bill James’ Runs Created), rate stats (OBP/SLG, wOBA, GPA, etc,), and a bunch of other things you could do. Really, your stat of choice should depend heavily upon what question you’re trying to answer. Anyway, rather than try to recap the history of run estimation, something I would inevitably fail miserably at, let me just explain what I did.

Palmer’s Batting Runs

That’s essentially the stat we’ve calculated, and you can read a little about it here. It should be very similar to the number located on each player page at Baseball-Reference.com (“BtRns” under Special Batting). If you’re new to this stuff, well, the process is actually pretty simple. You take a player’s stats (singles, doubles, triples, etc.) and multiply them by the corresponding number in the formula. So, if Milton Bradley has 53 singles, you multiply that by .47, then take his doubles and times them by .85, and so on. At the end, you subtract (outs* ~.3). Base stealing is added in separately, and is simply .22*SB-.38*CS.

What you end up with is the number of runs above (or below) average a player has produced in his given playing time.

Adjusting for Parks

Surely, we want to make some adjustment for the park that a player plays his home games in. To do this, we take the outs number (.286 for the AL) and multiply it by the player’s park factor. For, let’s say, Jason Varitek, we penalize him .297 (.286*1.04) for his outs, rather than .286. If we go through and do this for every player, we have a pretty decent park adjustment*. By the way, I used Patriot’s park factors.

*There is a more complicated, more technically correct way to make this adjustment. The difference, however, is pretty tiny, so I’m just sticking with the simpler adjustment.

The Good

As I understand it, a linear weights type method for individual hitters is the best way to go. While something like Runs Created is a fine run estimator, often times it will overvalue great hitters, because they interact with their teammates and not in a lineup of clones (i.e., there aren’t nine Albert Pujols’ in the batting order, but rather one Pujols and eight mortals). Runs Created assumes a player interacts outside of a team construct, while Batting Runs does not.

And unlike, say, OPS, probably the most popular stat on the internet, we actually know what Batting Runs is measuring – runs! We know there’s a difference between an .800 OPS and a .900 OPS, but we don’t really know what one point of OPS is worth. The difference between 30 Batting Runs above average and 20 in, let’s say, 400 PA, is 10 runs. Pretty simple and straightforward.

Limitations

The negatives have more to do with the simplicity of my calculation than anything else. There are things you can (and probably should) add like double play adjustments, a different out value for strikeouts, and so on. It all depends on how accurate and detailed you want to get. Next time we do this, probably at the end of the year, we’ll use a more detailed formula.

Furthermore, the weights used here are long term averages and are not based on any specific context. For instance, if you want to know how many runs J.D. Drew added to the Red Sox, rather than an average team, you’d problem want to look at something like Custom Linear Weights.

Also, remember that this method counts, say, every home run as 1.40 runs, as that is what it’s worth in the long run. However, if a player has a particularly clutch year or something, he’s obviously getting undercut here. Going back to what I said earlier, it really depends on what exactly you want to measure.

Finally, this is just one year’s worth of stats, and does not represent a player’s true talent. To find that, or at least estimate it, you’d want multiple years of data, regression to the mean, an age adjustment, and so on.

Alright, enough babbling, let’s see some numbers. Here are the top 15 hitters in each league:

AL                         NL	
1. Rodriguez, NY    38.2   1. Pujols, Stl     52.2
2. Bradley, Tex     34.4   2. Berkman, Hou    47.4
3. Sizemore, Cle    32.3   3. Jones,Atl       42.7
4. Markakis, Bal    28.2   4. Holliday, Col   38.1
5. Drew, Bos        28.1   5. Ludwick, Stl    33.5
6. Quentin, Chi     28.0   6. Ramirez, Fla    31.1
7. Morneau, Min     26.7   7. Wright, NY      30.2
8. Huff, Bal        26.2   8. Utley, Phi      27.7
9. Kinsler, Tex     26.1   9. Lee, Hou        26.8
10.Hamilton, Tex    25.5   10.McCann, Atl     26.4
11.Cabrera, Det     24.9   11.Burrell, Phi    26.2
12.Youkilis, Bos    24.3   12.Gonzalez, SD    24.6
13.Roberts, Bal     23.5   13.Braun, Mil      23.1
14.Ramirez, Bos     22.7   14.Teixeira, Atl   22.9
15.Giambi, NY       22.6   15.Bay, Pit        22.3

And how about the worst 10:

AL                         NL		
1. Pena, KC        -27.0   1. Sanchez, Pit   -23.4
2. Gomez, Min      -17.9   2. Francoeur, Atl -21.8
3. Johjima, Sea    -17.9   3. Patterson, Cin -21.3
4. Betancourt, Sea -15.7   4. Vizquel, SF    -21.1
5. Cabrera, NY     -15.6   5. Taveras, Col   -20.4
6. Varitek, Bos    -14.4   6. Bourn, Hou     -19.8
7. Vidro, Sea      -14.4   7. Jones, LA      -18.6
8. Gutierrez, Cle  -14.3   8. Greene, SD     -17.9
9. Marte, Cle      -13.9   9. Pena, Was      -17.7
10.Bynum, Bal      -13.7   10.Young, Ari     -15.8

Here’s the spreadsheet with all players*:

*I took out the pitchers in the NL while making the calculations. Of course, I’m just realizing it now, but I forgot to do the same in the AL (darn inter-league play). I took them out now, but I’m hoping it didn’t have too much of an effect on the final numbers (and I really don’t think it did).

Unlike the fielding spreadsheet, unfortunately, this one won’t automatically update – I had some computer issues and had to use someone else’s, and I couldn’t seem to get the auto-update thing to work. Anyway, feel free to play around in there and use the numbers for whatever you’d like.

Now that we’ve covered hitting and fielding, we’re getting close to a pretty decent little player evaluation ‘system.’ Add in some positional adjustments, some league adjustments, maybe a base running stat, and some other stuff and we’d be pretty good. But hopefully this will tide you over in those message board/blog debates.

Next time, if my computer returns safely, we’ll dig a little deeper into the fielding data available at The Hardball Times.

*Big thanks to Patriot for helping me better understand a few things and Baseball Prospectus for the data.



Autor of the post: Undefined


The Clock is Ticking Post Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2008 10:52:08 -0800

Major League Baseball (MLB) teams, including scouts, scouting directors and general managers, are no doubt buzzing like a bee hive in a hurricane. The deadline for signing 2008 amateur draft picks expires on this Friday, Aug. 15.

Because many of the remaining players are expected to sign above-slot deals, MLB has 'encouraged' teams to delay the announcements until right before the deadline in hopes of limiting the effect those would have on other negotiations. What is most surprising is the lack of whispers regarding pre-arranged deals that are just waiting for MLB's seal of approval to make them public; there is a lot we don't know this year as the time ticks down.

Here is what we don't know (Unsigned Players):
2. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh (college selection)
3. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City (high school selection)
4. Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Orioles (college selection)
5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants (college selection)
7. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincinnati Reds (college selection)
9. Aaron Crow, RHP, Washington Nationals (college selection)

Six of the Top 10 picks remain unsigned, which I personally hate to see as it doesn't help these players' developments. Hosmer, like fellow prepster Cole, is advised by the Scott Boras Corporation so they will likely sign as long as they get ridiculous amounts of money to play a game they 'love.' Hosmer offers an exciting future and could pair beautifully with 2007 first round draft pick and third baseman Mike Moustakas.

The moment Alvarez signs with Pittsburgh he could become the organization's franchise player and will give fans a lot to talk about (finally - although the Manny Ramirez trade has helped too). Matusz and Crow, by far the top college arms in the draft, are expected to get Major League contracts, although Crow's discussions with Washington have not gone well and there is an outside shot he will not sign.

Posey and Alonso will get done, with the backstop offering much-needed prospect polish to a system mostly void of impact bats. Alonso could be Major League ready in two years but is currently blocked at first base by youngster Joey Votto.

11. Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers (college selection)
20. Josh Fields, RHP, Seattle Mariners (college selection)
23. Allan Dykstra, 1B, San Diego Padres (college selection)
28. Gerrit Cole, RHP, New York Yankees (high school selection)

Smoak is one of my favorite players in the draft so I would like to see him take the field before the end of the year, but that may not happen. And what is Fields waiting for? Already a senior, he does not have the option to return to college but he could theoretically threaten to hold out until the just before the 2009 draft if he isn't given a Major League contract. Dykstra is the most likely first rounder not to sign due to a questionable physical that unearthed some concerns about his hip, which was injured in high school. If the Yankees can't get Cole signed, nobody can.

Here is what we know so far (Signed Players):

1. Tim Beckham, IF, Tampa Bay Rays (high school selection)
6. Kyle Skipworth, C, Florida Marlins (high school selection)
8. Gordon Beckham, SS, Chicago White Sox (college selection)
10. Jason Castro, C, Houston Astros (college selection)

Tim Beckham shocked everyone by signing quickly but his adjustment to pro ball has been slow - which is not a concern at this point given his age. Skipworth is also struggling. Castro's .270/.365/.351 line in 74 at-bats is OK, but not great given that it is in Short Season ball. I am a little surprised Gordon Beckham did not sign until last night given that he had such a great season and surely would not repeat such a feat in his senior season. The White Sox could also use the middle infield depth.

12. Jemile Weeks, 2B, Oakland Athletics (college selection)
13. Brett Wallace, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals (college selection)
14. Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins (high school selection)
15. Ethan Martin, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (high school selection)
16. Brett Lawrie, C, Milwaukee Brewers (high school selection)
17. David Cooper, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays (college selection)
18. Ike Davis, 1B, New York Mets (college selection)
19. Andrew Cashner, Chicago Cub (college selection)

College hitters Weeks, Wallace, and Cooper are off to fast starts. Weeks is hitting .297/.422/.405 in 74 A-ball at-bats. Wallace is hitting .344/.427/.534 in 131 A-ball at-bats. Cooper has been the fastest mover, having played at three levels and topping out in High-A ball. Currently, he is hitting .343/.409/.531 overall in 207 at-bats and was the second first rounder to sign a pro contract. Martin has been sidelined for the rest of the season with a knee injury.

New York fans have to be disappointed with Davis' start, which includes a line of .235/.289/.307 and zero homers in 153 Short Season at-bats. Hicks is doing his best Ben Revere impression and is trying to make the Twins look brilliant yet again. His line, albeit in Rookie Ball, is currently .312/.412/.478 in 138 at-bats with 11 stolen bases to go along with 25 walks and 27 strikeouts. Lawrie recently signed and is currently in China playing for Canada's Olympic squad. Cashner has been brutal for the Cubs while making three starts in four appearances. He has a 10.80 ERA with 12 walks and five strikeouts in 5.2 innings.

21. Ryan Perry, RHP, Detroit Tigers (college selection)
22. Reese Havens, IF, New York Mets (college selection)
24. Anthony Hewitt, SS, Philadelphia Phillies (high school selection)
25. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Colorado Rockies (college selection)
26. Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (college selection)
27. Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Minnesota Twins (college selection)
29. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland Indians (college selection)
30. Casey Kelly, RHP/SS, Boston Red Sox (high school selection)

Havens is currently playing in Short Season ball and is hitting .263/.359/.500 with three homers in 80 at-bats. Hewitt is hitting .235/.298/.376 in 85 Rookie Ball at-bats. He also has just five walks and 39 strikeouts. Fellow high school pick Kelly is struggling in Rookie Ball with a line of .169/.200/.246 in 65 at-bats. Chisenhall is doing well in Short Season ball with a line of .272/.333/.426 and four homers in 195 at-bats.

Perry has struggled with consistency so far in his pro career and has a 4.26 ERA in six High-A ball games as Detroit attempts to rush him through the system. He has allowed six hits and four walks in 6.1 innings. Friedrich has looked good for Colorado in the Northwest League with 27 hits and eight walks allowed in 31 innings. He has also struck out 42 batters. Surprise first round pick Gutierrez is doing just OK in High-A ball with 19 hits and six walks allowed in 16.2 innings. He has struck out just 11 batters but is inducing two groundball outs for each flyball out. Schlereth has yet to allow an earned run in three relief appearances.


With time running out, what rumors are you hearing about unsigned selections?



Autor of the post: Undefined


So I Went to a Baseball Game Last Night Post Date: Wed, 13 Aug 2008 05:43:16 -0800

I have heard a number of people make reference to this but it really is true. You never know what is going to happen in any given baseball game. On any night, if you decide to devote the time, you could witness history.

The baseball season is long; hell, a baseball game is long. It requires considerable attention span, sometimes more than even the most ardent die-hards can allot. I think it's funny when baseball writers and other mainstream baseball figures pull rank by claiming they "watch every inning" as if doing that is somehow a life-enhancer. Not only that, but they don't watch every inning. Most of them watch one team's games.

The most knowledgeable baseball people I know not working in front offices work hard in various fields, value family time, exercising, golf, reading books, etc. Using the DVR and getting after it with the remote and the MLB Extra Innings package a few nights a week while keeping up online does the trick for me. I don't know, but I am ok without clubhouse time and bad buffet food.

Anyway, I say all of this because I went to Fenway Park last night, just as I do 15-20 other times each season, and thought it was just going to be another August game against the Rangers. Well it wasn't; it was a reminder that when you do decide to sit down and devote yourself to an entire, singular baseball game, it can often be damn rewarding. I witnessed a game that featured a tie for the most runs scored in an American League baseball game. Ever. There's a lot to say, and this Boston Globe piece sums it all up pretty nicely, but I want to focus on three items.

1) Charlie Zink sucks. I don't blame the Red Sox for giving it a shot. He had a 2.89 ERA this year in Pawtucket and Tim Wakefield went down with an injury. It seemed sensible enough. But his knuckler barely knuckles, he throws too many non-knuckle balls and he doesn't seem to strike enough batters out to be effective. I wish the kid all the best, but I would prefer not to see him take to the Fenway hill again in 2008.

2) Marlon Byrd looks good. Weird words to type, I know, but it's true. Since last season, in 190 games and about 750 plate appearances, Byrd is hitting .304/.366/.466. He's 30 now and a below average center fielder but he is precisely the sort of filler savvy teams should be on the lookout for. He will be a free agent at the end of this year and even though the last two seasons represent outliers for Byrd, there is enough of a body of work to start to feel good about his chances of helping a ballclub in 2009 and beyond. The only red flag is that over the same period, he is hitting .264/.315/.402 away from Arlington.

3) With his second home run of the game (a frozen rope over the monster) to give the Red Sox a lead in the bottom of the eighth last night, Kevin Youkilis got Fenway feeling like loud, intense, playoff-push Fenway again. And really, it's time to start talking about Youk as an MVP candidate. I don't necessarily think he is the most deserving candidate, but you look up and down BP's VORP list and A-Rod isn't getting it, and nobody from the Rangers or Indians is either. That leaves Youk, who is now hitting .316/.384/.564 while mixing in some good defense and big moments as well. With Mike Lowell potentially heading to the DL, he will also get to display his defensive versatility, which should only help his case.

At first glance you might think Youkilis is a great candidate for a nice pre-arb free agent deal but I am not so sure. He is slugging 100 points higher than his career slugging percentage this season and at age 29, it's hard to imagine him getting much better. He has publicly expressed frustration in the past with how the Red Sox managed his service time clock early in his career and right now he looks like a man on a mission. He wants that big free agent deal. So if you're the Red Sox, you can;

- Extend him (say, four years $40 million), and run the risk that his incentive structure becomes out of whack.

- Let him play out these years, needing to grind for every penny. The risk here is that relations become strained between Youk and the club but beyond that, what's the downside for the Red Sox here? That they lose out on him to the highest bidder for his 32-37 seasons? Oh well, I am sure that's a fate they can live with.

If I am the Red Sox I'd keep that fire lit under his ass and make him go year-to-year until he becomes unrestricted. Then you make your call if you want to enter the bidding.



Autor of the post: Undefined


High School Talent is Heating Up Post Date: Tue, 12 Aug 2008 00:09:02 -0800

Tied with the best records heading into the finale of the Area Code Games on Sunday, the Texas Rangers (Texas) beat the Milwaukee Brewers Blue (Southern California), 4-2, to win the tournament with a 4-1 record. The Brewers lost their final two games while the Rangers' lone defeat was at the hands of the Oakland Athletics (Southeast) on Friday.

All in all, there there were 20 contests played over a six-day span at Blair Field in Long Beach. I attended a number of them and had the opportunity to witness more than 100 players display their talents and skills in a showcase setting in front of hundreds of scouts. In addition to playing five games each, the athletes went through a player evaluation (SPARQ testing) on Tuesday and participated in a MLB Scout Symposium at the Long Beach Marriott on Wednesday.

In 22 years of existence, the Area Code Games have hosted numerous major leaguers, highlighted by current stars Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Dan Haren, Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, C.C. Sabathia, and Grady Sizemore. Looking to the future, Tim Beckham (the No. 1 overall pick in the 2008 draft by Tampa Bay), Kyle Skipworth (FLA, #6), Aaron Hicks (MIN, #14), Brett Lawrie (MIL, #16), Anthony Hewitt (PHI, #24), and Gerrit Cole (NYY, #28) all played in last summer's Area Code Games.

Whether it was the wood bats, the ballpark's dimensions, the seaside altitude, or just plain ol' strong arms, the pitchers got the best of the hitters throughout the week, as evidenced by a no-hitter in the opener on Tuesday and a 0-0 tie in the morning tilt on the final day. While the pitching results were impressive, it wasn't as if all of the chosen hurlers were lighting up the radar guns all week long. Yes, there were a number of pitchers touching the low-90s, but the majority were throwing in the mid- to high-80s.

Many of the top players from the Area Code Games also participated in the Aflac All-American High School Baseball Classic at Dodger Stadium on Saturday. The Aflac game, which was televised nationally by FoxSports, tends to attract the best of the best, including several who did not appear at the Area Code Games.

Unlike the Area Code Games, all Aflac players must have completed their junior year of high school to be eligible for participation. The Aflac participants are required "to be in good academic standing and display redeeming qualities off the field that embody the ideals of the sport of baseball, including discipline, determination and hard work." The six-year-old Aflac high school classic has produced 52 first-round draft picks during the past five years, including at least eight (2005) and as many as 13 (2007).

Down 2-0 going into the ninth inning, the East staged a sterling comback victory by scoring four runs, including a game-tying-and-winning single by MVP Brian Goodwin (Rocky Mount HS, NC). The lefthanded-hitting outfielder also singled in the second and impressed me when he took an extra base on a heads-up play while center fielder Kyrell Hudson (Evergreen HS, WA) was trying to sell the umpires that he caught the speedy Goodwin's line drive.

In contrast to the Area Code Games, there were very few fastballs that didn't register in the 90s at the Aflac game. The hardest of 'em all was delivered by Mychal Givens. He threw two pitches only, a 96-mph fastball that resulted in a fly out to left and a 98-mph heater that turned into a 4-3 ground out. Givens was relieved in the bottom of the eighth by Austin Maddox (Eagle's View Academy, FL), a starting catcher-turned-pitcher (and straight-A student) whose fastball ranged from 91-96 in 1-1/3 innings of work.

All in all, there were 26 strikeouts recorded in an event that was dominated by the nation's best power arms, including five by the West's starter Jacob Turner (Westminster Christian Academy, MO). The 6-foot-4, 205-pound righthander, who struck out the side in the first after opening the game with a hit batter and a walk, was throwing loosely from 90-93 and mixing in a quality mid-70s curve and changeup in his two innings.

The remaining radar gun readings, along with brief comments, are listed below in order of appearance (West followed by the East).

West

  • Brooks Pounders (Temecula Valley HS, CA): 6-5, 225-pound RHP. 92-94. Retired all three batters but didn't record a strikeout. Also played first base. Father played Triple-A for the San Diego Padres. Verbally committed to the University of Southern California.

  • Tyler Matzek (Capistrano Valley HS, CA): 6-3, 185 LHP. Commands four pitches (fastball, curve, slider, and changeup), including a fastball that consistently hit 93 on Saturday. Struck out Luke Bailey (Troup County HS, GA) swinging on a four-seamer up and away that was a terrific pitcher's pitch. He retired the side in order with two punchouts. A high first-round draft pick for sure.

  • Matthew Purke (Klein HS, TX): Listed at 6-3, 170, the lanky lefthander looks much taller. Heavy 92-93 two-seam sinking fastball and a four-seamer that registered 95. 81-82 curve plus a circle change. He projects as an Andrew Miller-type but with perhaps a more effortless, free-and-easy delivery. Has an electric arm from the 3/4 slot. Was 12-1 with a 0.37 ERA and 147 Ks in 76.2 IP as a junior. Recorded a 1-2-3 fifth inning with two Ks. Another high first-round draft selection next June.

  • Chad Thompson (El Toro HS, CA): 6-8, 215 RHP. Sat at 89-91 and topped out at 93. 78-mph curveball. 1-2-3 sixth with one whiff on what looked like a generous call by the home plate ump.

  • Scott Griggs (San Ramon Valley HS, CA): 6-2, 185 RHP. 92-95. 76-78 curve. Reminded me of A.J. Burnett in terms of fastball, hump curveball, movement, and erratic control. Walked two and struck out one while allowing no hits and no runs.

  • Matt Graham (Oak Ridge HS, TX): 6-3, 195 RHP. 91-94. He induced Michael Heller (Sarasota Mooney HS, FL) to hit a grounder to short on what appeared to be a dynamite sinker.

  • Slade Heathcott (Texas HS, TX): 6-1, 195 LHP. 89-93 in the Aflac game and 87-91 at the Area Code Games. Struggled on Saturday and was saddled with the loss. Struck out the side with one infield single mixed in during the opener of the Area Code Games. A two-way player who drove in the first run of the game for the West on a line-drive single to left, Heathcott is one of the most athletic players in the class of 2009. He performed a cartwheel and back flip before the Aflac game in honor of Chairman Ozzie Smith, who gave him a "7 1/2" when he saw it on a TV replay.

    East

  • Zack Wheeler (East Paulding HS, GA): 6-4, 175 RHP. Consistently 92-95. Mostly fastballs. Projectable pitcher's build. Would have recorded a scoreless first inning, if not for a passed ball third strike that allowed David Nick (Cypress HS, CA) to reach base and eventually score the first run of the game. Brother Adam was drafted in 2001 by the New York Yankees and played for four years with the organization before getting hurt. Should be a first-round draft choice next year.

  • Keyvius Sampson (Ocala Forest HS, FL): 6-1, 185 RHP. 93-94. Almost all fastballs. Three-sport athlete. Recorded a couple strikeouts.

  • Christopher Jenkins (Westfield HS, NJ): 6-7, 230 RHP. 90-94. Low-80s slider. Big kid. Long. Lots of legs and arms. Black belt in karate. Struck out two and walked one in a hitless and scoreless third inning.

  • Daniel Tuttle (Randleman HS, NC): 6-2, 185 RHP. Sinker, slider type with a fastball that registered upwards of 93-94. Projects as a groundball machine as a starter or reliever if he learns to keep the ball down. Allowed back-to-back doubles for the West's second run before striking out his final two batters.

  • Ethan Carter (Menchville HS, VA): 6-5, 200 RHP. 89-90. 3/4-arm slot. Pounded the strike zone with his fastball and breaking ball. 1-2-3 with two punchouts. Verbally committed to the University of South Carolina.

  • Michael Heller (Sarasota Mooney HS, FL): 6-2, 180 RHP. 91-94 with a 78-80 curve. A third baseman/pitcher somewhat reminiscent of Ethan Martin, drafted in this year's first round by the Dodgers. Committed to the University of Florida. Retired the side in order with a strikeout, flyout, and groundout.

  • Ian Krol (Neuqua Valley HS, IL): 6-1, 175 LHP. Hit 92 on Saturday although fastball sat in the high-80s during his one appearance in the Area Code Games (starting pitcher in the opener). Changes speeds well. Although not as tall as Cole Hamels, he reminds me of the Phillies' ace southpaw in terms of stuff and pitchability. Threw two no-hitters and a perfect game in high school. Got two pop fly outs, including a spectacular running, diving, and over-the-shoulder catch by shortstop Richie Shaffer (Providence HS, NC).

  • Mychal Givens (H.B. Plant HS, FL): 6-1, 185 RHP. Hit 96 and 98 on the radar guns. Both pitches were fairly straight despite 3/4-arm angle. Also throws a changeup. Outstanding two-way athlete. Started the game at shortstop, where he made a nice stop and throw on an infield single in the second inning, and led off. Was named the recipient of the Jackie Robinson Award. One of the top ten high school prospects in the country.

  • Austin Maddox (Eagle's View Academy, FL): 6-3, 220 RHP. 92-96. Big, strong, thick body. Was in starting lineup as a cather in the fifth spot. Won a gold medal as a member of the 16-and-under USA Baseball Youth National Team. Verbally committed to the University of Florida.

    We will follow up later in the week with some additional highlights of the Area Code and Aflac games, including a focus on the offensive side of the ledger.



    Autor of the post: Undefined


    Remember This Name Post Date: Thu, 07 Aug 2008 02:29:20 -0800

    Let me introduce you to the No. 1 pick in the 2011 amateur draft . . . Bryce Harper. I know, that particular draft won't take place for three more years. As such, how in the world could I make this type of a prediction now? Well, if you watched the 15-year-old, lefthanded-hitting catcher take batting practice, infield, and two plate appearances on Tuesday at the Area Code Games, as I did, then I have no doubt that you would be as enthusiastic about this phenom as I am.

    Area%20Code%20Games.jpgHarper is one of only six athletes from the 2011 graduating class competing in the 22nd annual Area Code Baseball Games at Blair Field in Long Beach, California this week. Of the remaining 172 players, 19 will graduate in 2010 and 153 in 2009. Although I have only seen two games and four of the eight teams thus far, I would be surprised if there is a player who rivals Harper's talent. Yes, I believe Harper just may be the most outstanding prep in the country right now.

    I'm not the only one who feels this way about the 6-foot-2, 197-pound sophomore-to-be from Las Vegas. I spoke to a handful of the more than 300 scouts in attendance on the first day of the tournament about Harper and the responses – from those who have followed him closely to others who had seen him for the first time that day – ranged from "wow" to shaking head in disbelief to "the best high school hitter I've ever seen."

    Using a wood bat, Harper put on a hitting clinic toward the end of BP, blasting one shot after another. Several hours later, the prized prospect hit the two hardest balls during the opening day of the six-day tournament in which pitchers dominated the action. In his first at-bat, Harper, serving as the designated hitter for the Cincinnati Reds, lined out to center field. He hit the ball about as squarely as possible, directly up the middle but straight into the glove of Washingon Nationals center fielder Kyrell Hudson.

    In Harper's second trip to the plate, he jacked a towering shot off the right-field wall for a stand-up triple to open the sixth inning. It is important to note that Blair Field is a pitcher-friendly ballpark played at seaside altitude with 348-ft dimensions down the lines that exceed those of every major-league stadium in existence. He scored the only run of the game on a subsequent ground out to short. Harper was replaced in the ninth, ending the night with one of the only two hits in the contest as seven Reds pitchers combined to no-hit the Nats.

    Harper has a power bat and a plus throwing arm that "already grades out to 70 on the 20 to 80 scouting scale," according to Dave Perkin of Baseball America. During infield prior to the game, Harper, in full gear, rifled the ball out of a crouch to second and third base with precision. Upon seeing him in action, I marked down "+ + arm" next to his name in my program. Although the rap on him is that he's not all that fast, I thought he ran very well from home to third on that triple, especially considering his age, size, and power. The kid is nothing if not impressive.

    While I didn't witness Harper during the SPARQ (acronym for Speed, Power, Agility, Reaction, Quickness) testing that morning, he earned a score of 63.93, the 54th highest total out of 178 participants. It was the fourth-highest rating among the 25 underclassmen. Interestingly, he ran a 3.91 in the 30-yard dash, ranking in the top 10% in that category.

    Check out Harper's explosive swing in the cage during a recent batting practice session.

    You can also see Harper going yard in an actual game in this video clip.

    As shown, Harper employs a slightly open stance with the right heel off the ground and his hands held high. He uses his body well, gets into a good position at the point of contact, and goes after the ball in a very aggressive manner. Bryce doesn't use batting gloves and tends to lean over and grab a handful of dirt before each at-bat. The youngster displayed a good eye and a mature approach on Tuesday, waiting for his pitch and peppering the offerings that he can handle.

    I am planning on catching some more games between now and Sunday and will report back on Monday with added commentary on Harper as well as a number of other standouts. The Area Code Games, long considered one of the top talent showcases in the country, has produced more than 300 major league players in just over two decades. There may be 15 or 20 participants who will eventually don big-league uniforms, and the best of the bunch just might be a kid who is still too young to drive. While Bryce Harper has a long ways to go (three more years of high school for the Las Vegas Wildcats and a few years in the minors) before reaching the Show, the June 2011 draft couldn't come any sooner for the MLB team lucky enough to select him.

    * * *

    Area Code Teams

    Chicago White Sox – Midwest (Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri)
    Cincinnati Reds – Southwest (Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Nevada)
    Milwaukee Brewers (Blue) – Southern California
    Milwaukee Brewers (Gray) – Northern California
    New York Yankees – Northeast (New York, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts)
    Oakland Athletics – Southeast (Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, North Carolina, Florida)
    Texas Rangers – Texas, Louisiana
    Washington Nationals – Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon)

    Schedule

    Tuesday, August 5:

    8:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. – Player Evaluation (SPARQ Testing and Batting Practice)
    3:45 p.m. – White Sox vs. Rangers (9)
    7:15 p.m. – Reds vs. Nationals (9)

    Wednesday, August 6:

    8:30 a.m. – Rangers vs. Nationals (9)
    12:00 p.m. – Brewers (Blue) vs. Athletics
    3:00 p.m. – Brewers (Gray) vs. Yankees
    6:30 p.m. – MLB Scout Symposium (Long Beach Marriott)

    Thursday, August 7:

    8:30 a.m. – Brewers (Gray) vs. Athletics
    11:30 a.m. – Brewers (Blue) vs. Yankees
    2:30 p.m. – Reds vs. Rangers
    5:30 p.m. – Nationals vs. White Sox

    Friday, August 8:

    8:30 a.m. – Yankees vs. Nationals
    11:30 a.m. – Athletics vs. Rangers
    2:30 p.m. – Brewers (Blue) vs. White Sox
    5:30 p.m. – Brewers (Gray) vs. Reds (9)

    Saturday, August 9:

    8:30 a.m. – Reds vs. Brewers (Blue)
    11:30 a.m. – Nationals vs. Brewers (Gray)
    2:30 p.m. – White Sox vs. Brewers (Gray)
    5:30 p.m. – Athletics vs. Yankees (9)

    Sunday, August 10:

    8:30 a.m. – White Sox vs. Athletics
    11:30 a.m. – Yankees vs. Reds
    2:30 p.m. – Rangers vs. Brewers (Blue)



    Autor of the post: Undefined


    Where Did They Come From? Post Date: Wed, 06 Aug 2008 06:19:00 -0800

    Every season we bear witness to a bevy of surprise performances by professional baseball players. That is what makes Major and Minor League Baseball so much fun. Let's take a look at a surprise offensive performance from each of the three Double-A leagues:

    Eastern League

    Luis Montanez, OF
    Bowie Baysox, Baltimore Orioles
    Drafted: 2000 first round by Chicago Cubs
    Acquired: 2007 as a Minor League free agent
    Born: Dec. 15, 1981

    Luis Montanez is a familiar name to prospect watchers and Chicago Cub fans. He was the club's No.1 draft pick (third overall) in the 2000 draft out of a Miami high school as an infielder. Montanez started off his career on fire and hit .344/.438/.531 in 192 Rookie League at-bats that same season.

    Unfortunately he then spent the next five years in A-ball and did not sniff Triple-A until 2006 at the age of 24. Now 26 and an outfielder, Montanez has spent the season in Double-A Bowie in the Baltimore Orioles organization and was hitting .335/.385/.601 with 26 homers in 451 at-bats. What is most surprising is the power; Montanez has never hit more than 14 homers in a season and was never considered a double-digit home run threat having broken the .500 slugging percentage mark only once previously.

    The Orioles obviously liked what they saw from him as he was promoted to the Majors today for the first time in his career. He may have what it takes to be a valuable utility player at the Major League level with his versatility and athleticism.

    Texas League

    Kila Kaaihue, 1B
    Northwest Arkansas Naturals, Kansas City Royals
    Drafted: 2002 15th round
    Born: March 29, 1984

    Kila Kaaihue may be one of baseball's biggest teases. But he may also finally be for real after numerous seasons of one step forward and two steps back. The Hawaiian comes from a baseball family, as his father Kala Kaaihue played in the minors for 11 seasons and brother (also named) Kala Kaaihue plays for the Braves organization.

    Kila was selected in the 15th round of the 2002 amateur draft out of high school and spent the next three seasons putting up OK, but not great, numbers. That changed when he entered the hitters' haven of High Desert in 2005 and he slugged 20 homers and hit .304/.428/.497 in 493 at-bats. He headed up to Double-A, though, and struggled mightily hitting .202/.305/.303 in 327 at-bats. Kila then split the next year between High-A ball and Double-A with modest results.

    The 2008 season began with Kila repeating Double-A for the third time and things finally clicked for the 24-year-old. He hit .314/.463/.624 with 26 homers and 80 walks in 287 at-bats. Kila was recently promoted to Triple-A where he is hitting .375/.423/.750 in five games. He may have finally found the happy medium between selling out for power and waiting for his pitch. With Billy Butler disappointing to a degree, the door may be open for Kila.

    Southern League

    Manny Mayorson, IF
    Carolina Mudcats, Florida Marlins
    Signed: 1999 non-drafted free agent by the Blue Jays
    Acquired: 2008 as a Minor League free agent
    Born: March 10, 1983

    Manny Mayorson's profile is a little different than the first two players in this article given his extreme lack of power, as seen by his career .317 slugging average. No, Mayorson is not going to be a star at the Major League level but his bat has improved enough over the last couple of years that he is no longer simply a good-field-no-hit player. Mayorson has always flashed Gold Glove skills at shortstop but he can play second and third base as well.

    Early in his career, Mayorson bounced around the low minors and struggled to hit .230 in his first five seasons. That changed, though, in 2005 when he hit .268/.309/.363 in his third go-around with the Florida State League. He then improved offensively each of the next two seasons although he was stuck in Double-A for the Jays both years. Finally free of the organization after the 2008 season due to Minor League free agency, Mayorson has come into his own, although he has spent most of the season in Double-A yet again.

    He is currently hitting .313/.372/.407 with 20 stolen bases, 26 walks (16 strikeouts) and 26 doubles in 297 Double-A at-bats. His average is good for ninth in the league. Earlier in the season Mayorson finally received a brief promotion to Triple-A where he hit .275/.321/.412 in 12 games. Yes there are some flaws in the Dominican's offensive game, but his combination of defensive skills and the ability to make contact make him an intriguing (and cheap) bench or part-time player option at the Major League level.

    * * *

    Well, that is only three interesting stories in a Minor League system filled with players. I'd love to hear about some of the story lines that you find interesting as the 2008 Minor League season begins to wind down.



    Autor of the post: Undefined


    SL Week in Review - Rivalries, Barry-gate, David v David, and more Post Date: Sun, 24 Aug 2008 18:00:13 +0000
    Just in case you’ve missed anything on SL over the last several days, here’s a quick recap of some of the top topics from the last week. Football Rivals You Love to Hate Scott the Red takes an in-depth look at top football rivalries in the UK. Can Scholes Join Ronaldo, Ferdinand, and Van [...]

    Autor of the post: Undefined


    Manchester City v. West Ham United - Live Blog Post Date: Sun, 24 Aug 2008 16:25:08 +0000
    Manchester City (Sturridge 65′, Elano 70′ 76′) 3-0 West Ham United Stadium: City of Manchester Stadium Date: Sunday 24 August 2008 Competition: English Premier League Kickoff: 16:00 BST, 11:00 EST Manchester City thrashed West Ham, 3-0, to pick up a big [...]

    Autor of the post: Undefined





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